November 2006 Summary

Avg minimum temp 3.2*C
Avg maximum temp 10.1*C
Mean temp 6.7*C
Min minimum -5.1*C (29)
Max minimum 11.6*C (17)
Min Maximum 3.9*C (21) Max maximum 17.9*C (17)

Rainfall 125 mm
Snow fall Tr

Put simply a month of above average temperatures.

Today was sunny this morning clouded over this afternoon with a shower at supper time. Temperature at midnight was 2.6*C rising to 13.4*C at 3:45 am when it began top fall for the rest of the day.

Today's high 13.4*C
Today's low 2.6*C
High barometer 101.0 kPa
Low barometer 99.7 kPa
Rainfall 41 mm

Current

Mostly cloudy
Temp 2.7*C
Wind NW 15 km
Barometer 101.0 kPa
Humidity 44%

Update on Monday storm

ATLANTIC PROVINCES STORM MOVG INTO ATLC EARLY IN PD AND NEXT SYSTEM DEPENING OFF CAPE COD.. MDL HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THAT FIRST SYSTEM AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS SHOWN BY LATEST 06H QPF VERIF VLD 18Z. COLD AIR INVADING THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE LIKELY TO GIVE SNOWSQUALLS OVR PRONED AREAS. WRF-NAM IS AN OUTLIER WITH NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF ERN SEABORD BEING TOO SLOW. POSITION WISE GEM REG, GLB AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW S OF CAPE COD BY 48H. UKMET IS A BIT FARTHER EAST. GEM REG IS THE MOST INTENSE WITH THAT SYSTEM WITH LOW AT 1001MB BY 48H. GLB AT 1005 MB AND GFS NAM AND ECMWF AT 1008 MB ARE WEAKER. THERE ARE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH NEGATIVELY TILTED UPR TROF AND CAA BUT GEM REG COULD BE IN THE DEEP SIDE WRT INTENSITY. DIONYSOS SHOWING A LOT OF LATENTE HEAT RELEASE BY END OF PD WITH THAT SYSTEM AND GEM REG COULB BE A CARRY AWAY WITH DEVELOPMENT. WILL GO MORE WITH CONSENSUS AROUND 1005-1008 MB ATM. POSITIONWISE THO GEM REG LOOKS REASONABLE. STAY TUNED FOR TONIGHT FCST.

Friday's weather recap

Friday show showers and light rain during the day with rain and wind during the night. Highest temp was in the morning 13.4*C before it started to drop near lunch. Low was 2.3*C. Before it started to rise again near midnight.

A look at the models for late Monday storm

Not much time today but a quick look shows the GEM GLB closer to land than the GFS at 00z Tuesday. Could be interesting. More info tomorrow.

Today was a cloudy day with SW winds and some fog. Showers beginning tomorrow turning to rain tomorrow night, up to 35 mm forecasted. Temperatures will rise overnight Friday to 13*C Saturday morning, pretty warm for early December.

Today's high 11.9*C
Today's low 8.7*C
High barometer 102.6 kPa
Low barometer 101.5 kPa

Current

Overcast
Temp 10.8*C
Wind SW 20 km
Barometer 101.5 kPa (falling)
Humidity 90%

Weekend System update

At 12z the models were showing the low to be in or near the Bay of Fundy Saturday morning, giving NB snow and freezing rain as the temperature falls.

A look at the models from 12z today for Tuesday 00z.

The GFS GEM GLB and the EURO all show the system off NS to be out to sea a good distance. They will have to bring system closer to sure for us to get a storm out of this.

Accuweather.com take on storm.

Something To WatchUpdated: Thursday, November 30, 2006 4:03 PM
The major storm currently over the Central states is getting most of our attention right now, but here is something to watch for. The cold front trailing the storm will stall along the Southeast coast this weekend where a second storm will begin to take shape Sunday night. The path it will take on Monday is very uncertain so, instead of an exact track, we have shown a window of movement. If this disturbance comes up the coast, it will snow in New England. A track more toward the east will result in little or nothing. More on this event will follow.
Story By AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist John Kocet.

CMC discussion on late Monday system.

ERN/ATLC CAN... UPR GRTLKS SYS CONTS EWD TWD NRN NWENG BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY MAJOR WINTER STROM DVLPG OVR WALTC ON DY5. 00Z GFS AND GBL ARE A LOT SHARPER WITH ASOCTD UPR TROF THAN THE 12Z UKMET AND ECMWF. THE 00Z RUN OF THE UKMET IS NOW IS AGREEMENT WITH GFS/GBL SENARIO AND IT ALSO DVLPS A HUGE STORM. FOR NOW IS LOOKS LIKE A 10-20CM EVENT WITH RISK OF FRZG PCPN OVR SRN MRTMS. HOWEVER FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS ARE SURE TO TAKE PLACE AS SYS IS RESULT OF MERGING IMPULSES WHICH IS ALWAYS TRICKY.

Special Weather Statment for Friday

WOCN11 CWHX 300831
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NOVA SCOTIA ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT
CANADA AT 4:31 AM AST THURSDAY 30 NOVEMBER 2006.

A FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SWEEP INTO NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE MARITIMES
FRIDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BEGIN OVER NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO
30 MILLIMETRES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWESTERN REGIONS BY FRIDAY
EVENING.

ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL FALL OVER ALL REGIONS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SOME RAINFALL WARNINGS BEING ISSUED. THE EXACT TRACK
AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO UPCOMING FORECASTS ARE LIKELY.

THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS AS RAINFALL
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED.

END/ASPC

Today was a cloudy day with some light flurries this morning and drizzle late this afternoon. Rising temperatures for tonight, cloudy tomorrow with rain on Friday before cooling off during the day on Saturday. See post below for possible snow first of the week.

Today's high current temp
Today's low -5.1*C
High barometer 103.6 kPa
Low barometer 102.9 kPa
Rainfall Tr

Current

Overcast
Temp 5.6*C
Wind SW 10 km
Barometer 102.9 kPa and falling
Humidity 88%

Weekend weather outlook and possible storm for late Monday

Today's runs of the models are similar to yesterdays so I am still going with some snow with western NB. As for NS rain with posible icing as temperature drops during the day Saturday.

The 12z run of the GFS and GEM GLB show a coastal storm off NS late Monday early Tuesday. The EURO shows the storm as well but far enough off the coast as not to have much of an effect on us. As of now looks like snow and strong winds.

A sunny but cool day today, with high temp recorded at 12:00 am. A bit warmer tomorrow then a warm front comes through on Thursday giving above average temperatures for Thursday and Friday with rain before a cold front pushes through some time on Saturday.


Today's high 4.6*C
Today's low current temp
High barometer 103.4 kPa
Low barometer 102.4 kPa
Rainfall Tr overnight

Current

Clear
Temp -1.2*C
Wind NE 5 km
Barometer 103.4 kPa
Humidity 50%

Looking at the runs of the GFS, Euro and GEM GLB from 12z Tues for 12z Sat, we see that the Euro and Can have moved further east, while the GFS has moved slightly east. If this continues there is a good chance of seeing snow in Western NB on Saturday. NWS in Maine has a good chance of snow in central and northern parts of the state.

Today was a sunny day with high cloudiness and light winds. A nice late Fall day. Cooler tomorrow before warming up Wednesday with rain Thursday and Friday.

Today's high 9.5*C
Today's low 2.5*C
High barometer 102.5 kPa
Low barometer 102.2 kPa

Current

Cloudy
Temp 6.4*C
Wind calm
Barometer 102.4 kPa
Humidity 60%

Here is the GEM GLB, issued today at 12z for Saturday at 12z. Yesterday it wasn't showing up. Same are as EURO maybe a bit further east.

Here is the EURO issued at 12z today for Saturday at 12z. It has slowed down and moved to the west since yesterday.

Click on block to view

The GFS 12z for 12z Saturday is quicker and further east than the GBL GEM and the EURO giving a chance of snow for western NB. This may have to be considered an outlier, but has remained consistant to last nights run, something the two other models haven't done.

Here is the Euro issued today at 12z for 12z next Saturday. It has the low further east than the GFS, still giving NS rain But western NB snow. Interestingly the Canadian Global shows no low at all.