June 15 2006

Extratropical low pressure system off of the coast at this time. More info to follow.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
FOR CONTINUITY WE ARE CONTINUING TO REFER TO THIS STORM AS POST-
TROPICAL ALBERTO HOWEVER IT HAS NO TROPICAL CHARTACTERISTICS LEFT
WHEN LOOKING AT THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE. IT IS SIMPLY A MATURE
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE FACT THAT IT IS THIS DEEP IN JUNE IS
QUITE RARE AND LIKELY OWES ITS STRENGTH... IN PART... TO THE RIPE
INGREDIENTS THAT IT INGESTED FROM ALBERTO OVERNIGHT.
THE STORM CONTINUES DEEPENING THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE
IN THE LOW 970S AT FORECAST TIME. THE GEM INITIALIZED TOO HIGH...
AS DID OTHER MODELS... HOWEVER ALL MODELS RECOGNIZE THAT AN INTENSE
LOW IS IN MARITIME WATERS.

DRY AIR HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW AND SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION HAS
BEEN EVIDENT FOR MANY HOURS JUST NORTH OF THE LOW. LIGHTNING
CONTINUES BEING REPORTED WEST OF THE LOW CENTRE OVER THE MARINE
DISTRICT.

B. PROGNOSTIC
THE GEM REGIONAL APPEARS REASONABLE REGARDING THE TRACK AND PRESSURE
TENDENCY FOR CENTRAL PRESSURE... APART FROM INITIALIZING TOO HIGH.
BETWEEN A GOOD SATELLITE AND MARINE DATA FIX ON THE LOW CENTRE AT
15Z AND THE GEM PROG WE ARE CONTENT TO MAINTAIN A SIMILAR TRACK TO
WHAT WE ISSUED EARLIER.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
NOVA SCOTIA RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 17Z INCLUDE 41 MM AT LUNENBURG AND
WESTERN HEAD.. AND 38 MM AT YARMOUTH. THE STRONGEST COASTAL WINDS
REPORTED HAVE BEEN PEAK WINDS OF 119 KM/H AT BACCARO POINT...
MARGINAL HURRICANE FORCE. WE EXPECT THAT 40-60 MM RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL HAVE OCCURRED BY THE TIME THAT THIS SYSTEM IS IN THE BOOKS.

D. MARINE WEATHER
STORM FORCE WINDS AT THE GEORGES BANK BUOY WERE REPORTED WELL BEHIND
THE STORM SO IT CONTINUES DEEPENING. WAVE HEIGHTS ALSO REACHED 7 M
AT THAT LOCATION BEFORE THEY STARTED DROPPING. A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT
BEHIND THE STORM IS BEING EXACCERBATED BY STRONG ISALLOBARICS SO
STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

END BOWYER


As of 8:30 pm 42 mm of rain fell in Clayton Park West. Rain was heavy at times with gusty winds which gave sporadic poweroutages. Storm moved by quickly with a low barometer of 98.8 kPa and then rose quickly at a rate of .2 to .3 kPa an hour.