Hurricane update from Enviroment Canada.
Hurricane Information Statements
WOCN31 CWHX 081900
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 4.00 PM ADT
FRIDAY 08 SEPTEMBER 2006.
... FLORENCE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT ATLANTIC CANADA BEFORE NEXT
WEEK...
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE IS FORECAST BY THE US NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE ON SATURDAY... PASS NEAR
BERMUDA MONDAY MORNING AS A MARGINAL CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...
THEN TRACK THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC CANADIAN WATERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAKENING CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE.
FLORENCE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME WITH MAXIMUM
WINDS STILL IN THE RANGE OF ONLY 90 KM/H BUT GALE FORCE WINDS
EXTENDING OUT TO MORE THAN 600 KM FROM THE CENTRE. IT IS EXPECTED
THAT AS FLORENCE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES INTO MID LATITUDES THAT IT
WILL RETAIN THIS LARGE RADIUS OF GALES AND THAT THEY COULD MOVE INTO
CANADIAN WATERS WELL AHEAD OF THE CENTRE OF THE STORM. IN ADDITION
TO THIS MOST COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE A STRONG RIDGE OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND NOVA SCOTIA EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A PRESSURE SQUEEZE AS
FLORENCE APPROACHES. THE RESULT OF THIS COULD BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
GALES OVER SOUTHERN MARINE WATERS WELL AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL GALES
WITH THE STORM ITSELF.
THE LATEST SUITE OF DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL COMPUTER MODELS SHOW
A CONSIDERABLE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FOR THE LOCATION OF FLORENCE BY
THE TIME IT MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE LATITUDES NEXT WEEK. DESPITE THE
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER RANGE AT THIS TIME MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THAT FLORENCE WILL BE MOST LIKELY A
MARINE STORM AS IT PASSES ATLANTIC CANADA.
GIVEN THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST TRACK OF FLORENCE THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE WILL NOT BEGIN ISSUING ROUTINE BULLETINS UNTIL
LATE SATURDAY OR EVEN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE MONITOR FOR
BULLETINS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE THIS WEEKEND.
END BOWYER/FOGARTY
